Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs MLB Predictions – 22.05.26

Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds & MLB Picks

The Houston Astros win this game because S. Arrighetti is currently throwing absolute gas while the Chicago Cubs lineup is reeling from a shutout. This veteran squad from Houston has too much grit to stay down after a quiet night in Minnesota, and they usually feast on pitchers who are struggling to find the zone.

Quick Hits: What You Need to Know

• S. Arrighetti has been lights out recently, boasting a stellar 1.50 ERA that shows he is finally trusting his stuff in high-leverage spots.
• With a clean injury report for both sides, the Houston Astros hold the edge in depth and have the speed to play small ball if the wind at Wrigley isn’t cooperating.
• The total is trending toward the over because J. Taillon has been prone to shelling, evidenced by his 4.97 ERA and a tendency to leave heaters over the heart of the plate.

Analysis: Betting the Moneyline & Momentum

Travel fatigue is the silent killer in these mid-week sets, but the Houston Astros are a group of seasoned road warriors who don’t let a cross-country flight sap their energy. After a 1-4 loss to the Twins, expect the dugout to be chirping early as they try to jump on J. Taillon before he can settle into a groove.

Wrigley Field is a different beast when the ivy is green, and the dimensions can be a nightmare for a pitcher like J. Taillon who is giving up too much hard contact. If the Houston Astros can get runners on and move them over, they will expose a Chicago Cubs defense that looked a step slow in their recent 0-5 loss to Milwaukee.

The “eye test” says the Chicago Cubs are fading right now, struggling to find any rhythm at the plate after being held to zero runs in their last outing. When a team gets shut out, they often come out pressing the next day, which plays right into the hands of a young arm like S. Arrighetti who can exploit those over-eager swings.

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Final Prediction

The sharp play here is backing the hot hand on the rubber and fading a pitcher who is currently a liability for his club. While the Chicago Cubs have the better record at 29-21, the Houston Astros are playing better fundamental baseball right now and S. Arrighetti is the superior arm in this rubber match scenario. Expect Houston to capitalize on early mistakes and drive this score past the 7 run mark.

Winner Prediction: Houston Astros

Over/Under Prediction: over (Line: 7)