Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds & Picks | 03.11.26
Toronto Raptors
New Orleans Pelicans
Game Spread
Total Points
Tale of the Tape
Key Matchup: Top Scorers
B. Ingram
T. Murphy III
Detailed Analysis
Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 03.11.26
A cross-conference clash is set for Wednesday night as the playoff-contending Toronto Raptors (36-28) travel to the Smoothie King Center to face the rebuilding New Orleans Pelicans (21-45). This matchup presents a classic battle between a team solidifying its postseason position and a young squad looking to play spoiler and develop its core talent for the future.
Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans Matchup Preview
Toronto Raptors Key Stats & Trends
The Raptors have built a formidable record on the back of a dynamic and versatile offense. They are led by the scoring prowess of Brandon Ingram (21.7 PPG) and the all-around brilliance of Scottie Barnes, who stuffs the stat sheet with 18.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.4 SPG, and 1.6 BPG. Point guard Immanuel Quickley (6.2 APG) orchestrates the attack effectively. However, Toronto’s primary weakness is its current injury crisis, particularly in the frontcourt, which severely compromises their interior defense and rebounding.
Injury Report Toronto Raptors
- Jakob Poeltl (Day-to-day): Poeltl is out for Tuesday’s game against the Rockets with an illness.
- A.J. Lawson (Day-to-day): Lawson is available to play.
- Trayce Jackson-Davis (Day-to-day): Jackson-Davis is out for Tuesday’s game against the Rockets.
- Collin Murray-Boyles (Out): Murray-Boyles (thumb) will miss the Raptors’ upcoming two-game road trip.
- Chucky Hepburn (Out): Hepburn (knee) is progressing but remains out.
New Orleans Pelicans Key Stats & Trends
The Pelicans are in a developmental phase, reflected by their 21-45 record. The bright spot has been the emergence of Trey Murphy III, who has become their go-to scorer, averaging an impressive 22.0 PPG and 5.6 RPG. Rookie big man Derik Queen has also been a revelation, leading the team in both rebounding (7.1 RPG) and assists (3.9 APG) from the frontcourt. While the team struggles with consistency, their young talent can be explosive on any given night, especially at home.
Injury Report New Orleans Pelicans
- Bryce McGowens (Out): McGowens is out for Wednesday’s game against the Raptors with a fractured right toe.
Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction & Best Bet
Despite their significant frontcourt injuries, the Raptors possess superior top-end talent and experience. The trio of Ingram, Barnes, and Quickley provides more than enough offensive firepower to overcome a Pelicans team that struggles defensively. Toronto’s veteran leadership should guide them to a narrow victory against a less disciplined opponent.
The key betting angle, however, is the total. With Jakob Poeltl and Trayce Jackson-Davis sidelined, the Raptors have no true rim protection. This will force them into a high-paced, offense-focused strategy to compensate for their defensive shortcomings. Expect the Pelicans to find success scoring inside, pushing the Raptors to keep pace in a fast-breaking affair that sails past the posted total.
Prediction: Toronto Raptors -1.5 (Spread)
Best Bet: Over 232.5
Last 5 Games: TOR
| Opponent | Result | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Houston | L 113-99 | Barrett 25 | Barrett 6 | Quickley 6 |
| vs Dallas | W 122-92 | Barrett 31 | Poeltl 10 | Quickley 8 |
| @ Minnesota | L 115-107 | Barrett 25 | Poeltl 7 | Quickley 7 |
| vs New York | L 111-95 | Ingram 31 | Poeltl 7 | Quickley 12 |
| @ Washington | W 134-125 | Quickley 27 | Poeltl 10 | Quickley 11 |
Last 5 Games: NO
| Opponent | Result | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Washington | W 138-118 | Murphy III 24 | Bey 10 | Fears 7 |
| @ Phoenix | L 118-116 | Murphy III 22 | Williamson 10 | Murray 5 |
| @ Sacramento | W 133-123 | Williamson 23 | Williamson 9 | Fears 6 |
| @ Los Angeles | L 110-101 | Williamson 24 | Murphy III 8 | Murray 8 |
| @ LA | L 137-117 | Fears 28 | Missi 8 | Murray 5 |
Written by Matt Dorsey
Matt Dorsey turned his obsession with sports into a career five years ago, and he hasn't looked back. By combining a fan's passion with a veteran’s analytical eye, Matt provides reliable insights for the NBA, NHL, and NFL. He knows you’re looking for more than just a pick; you’re looking for a reason to trust the play. That’s why his work is always transparent, researched, and rooted in five years of proven results.