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Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds & Picks | 03.11.26

Last Updated: Mar 11, 2026 11:19 AM
Wednesday, 11 Mar 2026 TOR -2.5
Toronto Raptors

Toronto Raptors

L W L L W
36-28
VS 8:00 PM
New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans Pelicans

W L W L L
21-45

Game Spread

TOR -2.5

Total Points

Over 234.5

Tale of the Tape

TOR Stat Comparison NO
113.5 PPG 115.5
42.4 RPG 43.9
29.0 APG 25.1
47.3 FG% 46.4
34.4 3P% 34.3

Key Matchup: Top Scorers

VS
Brandon Ingram

B. Ingram

21.5 PPG
Trey Murphy III

T. Murphy III

22.0 PPG

Detailed Analysis

Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 03.11.26

A cross-conference clash is set for Wednesday night as the playoff-contending Toronto Raptors (36-28) travel to the Smoothie King Center to face the rebuilding New Orleans Pelicans (21-45). This matchup presents a classic battle between a team solidifying its postseason position and a young squad looking to play spoiler and develop its core talent for the future.

Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans Matchup Preview

Toronto Raptors Key Stats & Trends

The Raptors have built a formidable record on the back of a dynamic and versatile offense. They are led by the scoring prowess of Brandon Ingram (21.7 PPG) and the all-around brilliance of Scottie Barnes, who stuffs the stat sheet with 18.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.4 SPG, and 1.6 BPG. Point guard Immanuel Quickley (6.2 APG) orchestrates the attack effectively. However, Toronto’s primary weakness is its current injury crisis, particularly in the frontcourt, which severely compromises their interior defense and rebounding.

Injury Report Toronto Raptors

  • Jakob Poeltl (Day-to-day): Poeltl is out for Tuesday’s game against the Rockets with an illness.
  • A.J. Lawson (Day-to-day): Lawson is available to play.
  • Trayce Jackson-Davis (Day-to-day): Jackson-Davis is out for Tuesday’s game against the Rockets.
  • Collin Murray-Boyles (Out): Murray-Boyles (thumb) will miss the Raptors’ upcoming two-game road trip.
  • Chucky Hepburn (Out): Hepburn (knee) is progressing but remains out.

New Orleans Pelicans Key Stats & Trends

The Pelicans are in a developmental phase, reflected by their 21-45 record. The bright spot has been the emergence of Trey Murphy III, who has become their go-to scorer, averaging an impressive 22.0 PPG and 5.6 RPG. Rookie big man Derik Queen has also been a revelation, leading the team in both rebounding (7.1 RPG) and assists (3.9 APG) from the frontcourt. While the team struggles with consistency, their young talent can be explosive on any given night, especially at home.

Injury Report New Orleans Pelicans

  • Bryce McGowens (Out): McGowens is out for Wednesday’s game against the Raptors with a fractured right toe.

Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction & Best Bet

Despite their significant frontcourt injuries, the Raptors possess superior top-end talent and experience. The trio of Ingram, Barnes, and Quickley provides more than enough offensive firepower to overcome a Pelicans team that struggles defensively. Toronto’s veteran leadership should guide them to a narrow victory against a less disciplined opponent.

The key betting angle, however, is the total. With Jakob Poeltl and Trayce Jackson-Davis sidelined, the Raptors have no true rim protection. This will force them into a high-paced, offense-focused strategy to compensate for their defensive shortcomings. Expect the Pelicans to find success scoring inside, pushing the Raptors to keep pace in a fast-breaking affair that sails past the posted total.

Prediction: Toronto Raptors -1.5 (Spread)
Best Bet: Over 232.5

Last 5 Games: TOR

Form:
LWLLW
VS @ Houston
L 113-99
PTS Barrett 25
REB Barrett 6
AST Quickley 6
VS vs Dallas
W 122-92
PTS Barrett 31
REB Poeltl 10
AST Quickley 8
VS @ Minnesota
L 115-107
PTS Barrett 25
REB Poeltl 7
AST Quickley 7
VS vs New York
L 111-95
PTS Ingram 31
REB Poeltl 7
AST Quickley 12
VS @ Washington
W 134-125
PTS Quickley 27
REB Poeltl 10
AST Quickley 11

Last 5 Games: NO

Form:
WLWLL
VS vs Washington
W 138-118
PTS Murphy III 24
REB Bey 10
AST Fears 7
VS @ Phoenix
L 118-116
PTS Murphy III 22
REB Williamson 10
AST Murray 5
VS @ Sacramento
W 133-123
PTS Williamson 23
REB Williamson 9
AST Fears 6
VS @ Los Angeles
L 110-101
PTS Williamson 24
REB Murphy III 8
AST Murray 8
VS @ LA
L 137-117
PTS Fears 28
REB Missi 8
AST Murray 5
Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans

Written by Matt Dorsey

5 YEARS EXPERIENCE

Matt Dorsey turned his obsession with sports into a career five years ago, and he hasn't looked back. By combining a fan's passion with a veteran’s analytical eye, Matt provides reliable insights for the NBA, NHL, and NFL. He knows you’re looking for more than just a pick; you’re looking for a reason to trust the play. That’s why his work is always transparent, researched, and rooted in five years of proven results.

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