San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets Prediction | 01.28.26

San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 28-01-2026

Tonight, NBA fans are set for a compelling regular-season matchup as the San Antonio Spurs (31-15) travel to face the Houston Rockets (28-16) at the Toyota Center in Houston. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 PM EST on January 28, 2026. This Texas showdown features two franchises in different stages of their competitive arcs, yet both are vying for crucial Western Conference positioning.

San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets Matchup Preview

San Antonio Spurs Key Stats & Trends

The San Antonio Spurs enter this contest with impressive momentum, largely fueled by the generational talent of Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama has been a statistical marvel, averaging an astounding 24.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.8 steals, and a league-leading 2.7 blocks per game. His two-way impact transforms the Spurs on both ends of the floor. Complementing Wembanyama’s dominance, rookie Stephon Castle has emerged as a formidable playmaker, dishing out 7.0 assists per game, showcasing his ability to orchestrate the offense. The Spurs have demonstrated a blend of youthful athleticism and burgeoning chemistry, making them a formidable opponent. Their recent trend indicates a team that can dominate the paint and generate high-quality looks, particularly with Wembanyama drawing significant defensive attention.

Injury Report San Antonio Spurs

• Jeremy Sochan (Day-to-day): Sochan is questionable for Wednesday’s game in Houston due to a sore right quad. His potential absence could impact the Spurs’ defensive versatility and frontcourt depth.
• David Jones Garcia (Out): Jones Garcia, despite a strong recent performance with 12 points and six assists, will be unavailable for this matchup.

Houston Rockets Key Stats & Trends

The Houston Rockets, despite a respectable record, face significant challenges heading into this game, primarily due to key injuries. Kevin Durant remains the offensive engine, consistently delivering 26.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.0 block per game. His scoring prowess is undeniable. Alperen Sengun continues to be a versatile big man, leading the team with 9.0 rebounds and a surprising 6.4 assists per game from the center position. However, the Rockets’ recent performances have been hampered by a lack of consistent defensive intensity and playmaking depth. Their reliance on Durant for offense, coupled with defensive vulnerabilities, creates an uphill battle against a healthy, dynamic Spurs squad.

Injury Report Houston Rockets

• Steven Adams (Out): Head coach Ime Udoka confirmed that Adams suffered a “severely sprained, Grade 3 ankle sprain” and will be out indefinitely. This is a massive blow to Houston’s rebounding and interior defense.
• Fred VanVleet (Out): VanVleet suffered a torn ACL and may be out for the entire 2025-26 campaign. His absence removes their primary ball-handler, perimeter defender, and veteran leadership.

San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets Prediction & Best Bet

Considering the significant injury woes plaguing the Houston Rockets, particularly the season-ending absence of Fred VanVleet and the indefinite sidelining of Steven Adams, the scales tip heavily in favor of the visitors. While Kevin Durant’s scoring remains elite, the Rockets’ defensive integrity and offensive fluidity will be severely compromised. The Spurs, led by the transcendent Victor Wembanyama, whose all-around numbers are simply staggering (24.2 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 2.7 BPG), possess the defensive anchor and offensive firepower to exploit Houston’s depleted roster. Stephon Castle’s playmaking (7.0 APG) will further pressure a Rockets defense missing key pieces. Therefore, our definitive prediction is for the San Antonio Spurs to secure a decisive victory.

Regarding the total points line set at 220.5, we anticipate an offensive showcase. The Rockets, despite their injuries, still have Kevin Durant’s scoring and Alperen Sengun’s versatile offensive game. Their defense, however, will struggle without VanVleet’s perimeter pressure and Adams’ interior presence. The Spurs, with Wembanyama’s efficiency and Castle’s facilitating, are more than capable of putting up big numbers. Given Houston’s defensive vulnerabilities and San Antonio’s offensive capabilities, we project this game to go over the total.