Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction | 01.29.26

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 29-01-2026

The Western Conference heats up as the formidable Oklahoma City Thunder (38-10) travel to Target Center to face the Minnesota Timberwolves (29-19) on January 29, 2026, at 9:30 PM EST. This regular-season clash pits two of the league’s top-tier teams against each other, with significant implications for playoff seeding. Despite their impressive record, the Thunder arrive in Minneapolis facing considerable roster challenges, setting the stage for a compelling battle.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Matchup Preview

Oklahoma City Thunder Key Stats & Trends

The Oklahoma City Thunder have defied expectations, showcasing an electrifying offense and tenacious defense. Spearheading their charge is MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averages an astounding 32.0 PPG, alongside 6.2 APG, 4.4 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and 0.8 BPG, consistently delivering elite two-way play. Rookie sensation Chet Holmgren anchors the paint with 8.7 RPG, providing crucial rim protection and spacing. OKC’s success is built on their youthful athleticism and aggressive transition play, but their current depth is severely tested by a mounting injury list.

Injury Report Oklahoma City Thunder

• Ajay Mitchell (Out): Mitchell (abdomen) has been ruled out for Thursday’s game in Minnesota.
• Cason Wallace (Day-to-day): Wallace is questionable for Thursday’s game against Minnesota with left hip soreness.
• Alex Caruso (Out): Caruso is out for Thursday’s game against the Timberwolves with a right adductor strain.
• Jalen Williams (Out): Williams (hamstring) will be re-evaluated in two weeks.
• Nikola Topic (Out): Topic has been diagnosed with testicular cancer.
• Thomas Sorber (Out): Sorber has sustained a torn ACL in his right knee during an offseason workout.

Minnesota Timberwolves Key Stats & Trends

The Minnesota Timberwolves have established themselves as a defensive powerhouse, led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert, who commands the paint with 11.3 RPG. Offensively, Anthony Edwards is the primary scoring threat, averaging 29.7 PPG, complemented by 5.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 0.8 BPG. The addition of Julius Randle, contributing 5.4 APG, has bolstered their playmaking. The Timberwolves thrive on their interior defense and Edwards’ explosive scoring, making them a formidable opponent, especially on their home court.

Injury Report Minnesota Timberwolves

• Terrence Shannon Jr. (Out): Shannon (foot) has been ruled out for Monday’s game against the Warriors.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction & Best Bet

This matchup presents a fascinating dynamic. While the Thunder boast a superior record, their extensive injury report significantly alters the playing field. The absence of key two-way players like Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso, coupled with Cason Wallace being questionable, strips the Thunder of crucial secondary playmaking, defensive versatility, and overall depth. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will undoubtedly carry a heavy load, but facing the Timberwolves’ elite defense, led by Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards, without significant support will be a monumental task. The Timberwolves, relatively healthy and playing at home, are well-positioned to capitalize on OKC’s depleted roster. Their strong defense and Edwards’ scoring prowess should allow them to control the tempo and exploit OKC’s weakened perimeter defense.

Given the Thunder’s significant injuries to core rotation players, the Timberwolves are poised to cover the spread.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 (Spread)

Regarding the total points line of 225.5, both teams possess top-tier defenses. The Thunder, missing key offensive creators in Williams and Caruso, are likely to struggle to maintain their usual scoring efficiency against Minnesota’s stifling interior and perimeter defense. The Timberwolves, while potent, also lean into defensive battles. Expect a gritty, lower-scoring affair.

Total Points Pick: under