Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds & Picks | 02.11.26

Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 02.11.26

The Miami Heat (28-27) head to the Big Easy to face the New Orleans Pelicans (15-40) this Wednesday night at the Smoothie King Center. While Miami is battling to solidify its postseason positioning, the Pelicans are looking to find a rhythm in what has been a challenging campaign. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET.

Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans Matchup Preview

Miami Heat Key Stats & Trends

Despite a hovering .500 record, the Heat remain a defensive powerhouse anchored by Bam Adebayo. Adebayo is the engine of this team, leading in scoring (18.3 PPG) and rebounding (9.8 RPG). With several key scorers sidelined, Davion Mitchell has flourished as a playmaker, averaging a team-high 7.1 assists. Miami’s disciplined “Next Man Up” culture will be tested as they rely on their defensive rotations to stifle a high-volume Pelicans offense.

• Points: Bam Adebayo (18.3)
• Rebounds: Bam Adebayo (9.8)
• Assists: Davion Mitchell (7.1)
• Rating: Bam Adebayo (18.3 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.6 BPG)

Injury Report Miami Heat

• Pelle Larsson (Out): Larsson (elbow) will not play Wednesday against the Pelicans, according to Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald.
• Tyler Herro (Out): Herro (ribs) will remain out for Wednesday’s game in New Orleans.
• Andrew Wiggins (Day-to-day): Wiggins is questionable for Wednesday’s game with toe inflammation.
• Norman Powell (Out): Powell (back) is out for Wednesday’s game against the Pelicans.
• Terry Rozier (Out): The NBA placed Rozier on immediate leave from the Heat on Thursday.

New Orleans Pelicans Key Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have struggled with consistency, but Trey Murphy III has emerged as a legitimate star, averaging 22.2 PPG with elite efficiency. Rookie Derik Queen has been a revelation in the frontcourt, leading the team in both rebounds (7.3) and assists (4.2), showcasing unique point-forward skills. However, New Orleans’ bottom-tier defensive rating remains their Achilles’ heel.

• Points: Trey Murphy III (22.2)
• Rebounds: Derik Queen (7.3)
• Assists: Derik Queen (4.2)
• Rating: Trey Murphy III (22.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.5 SPG, 0.3 BPG)

Injury Report New Orleans Pelicans

• Micah Peavy (Day-to-day): Peavy is listed as questionable for Wednesday’s game due to a right great toe sprain.
• Dejounte Murray (Out): Murray (Achilles) participated in Sunday’s practice but remains out for this contest.

Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction & Best Bet

The Miami Heat are the definitive pick to win this matchup. Even with a depleted backcourt, Miami’s tactical superiority and the dominance of Bam Adebayo inside should overwhelm a Pelicans defense that lacks interior resistance. For the total, we are taking the over (232.5). New Orleans plays at a high pace and features Trey Murphy III’s explosive scoring, while Miami’s defensive absences (Herro, Powell) will likely lead to more transition opportunities for both sides.