Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Odds & Picks | 02.06.26
Last Updated: Feb 6, 2026 1:14 AM
Friday, 06 Feb 2026
BOS -6.5
Miami Heat
L
W
L
W
L
27-25
VS
7:30 PM
Boston Celtics
W
W
W
W
L
33-18
Game Spread
BOS -6.5
Total Points
Over
227.5
Tale of the Tape
MIA
Stat Comparison
BOS
119.9
PPG
115.9
46.6
RPG
45.3
28.7
APG
24.0
46.4
FG%
46.9
36.1
3P%
36.7
Key Matchup: Top Scorers
VS
N. Powell
23.0 PPG
J. Brown
29.5 PPG
Detailed Analysis
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 02.06.26
In a compelling regular-season matchup, the Miami Heat (27-25) travel to TD Garden to face the formidable Boston Celtics (33-18) on February 6th, 2026, at 7:30 PM EST. This Eastern Conference clash promises intensity, with both teams navigating significant roster challenges as they push for playoff positioning.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Matchup Preview
Miami Heat Key Stats & Trends
The Miami Heat enter this contest struggling with consistency, reflected in their near-.500 record. Their offensive rhythm has largely depended on veteran Norman Powell, who leads the team with an impressive 23.0 points per game. However, the engine of the team remains Bam Adebayo, a dominant force averaging 18.1 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 0.7 BPG. His all-around impact on both ends of the floor is undeniable. Playmaking responsibilities fall heavily on Davion Mitchell, who orchestrates the offense with 7.3 assists per game. The Heat’s resilience will be tested against a top-tier opponent, relying on their defensive grit and Adebayo’s versatility to stay competitive.
Injury Report Miami Heat
- Tyler Herro (Out): Herro (ribs) is not traveling with the Heat for their two-game road trip, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
- Terry Rozier (Out): The NBA placed Rozier on immediate leave from the Heat on Thursday, ESPN’s Shams Charania reports.
Boston Celtics Key Stats & Trends
The Boston Celtics, despite recent setbacks, maintain a strong record, showcasing their depth and elite talent. Their offense is spearheaded by Jaylen Brown, who has been exceptional, averaging 29.5 points per game while contributing 7.0 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 0.4 BPG. Brown’s scoring prowess and improved all-around game are critical. On the glass, Neemias Queta provides a strong interior presence with 8.3 rebounds per game, while Derrick White anchors the backcourt with 5.6 assists per game and tenacious defense. The Celtics’ balanced attack and home-court advantage make them a formidable opponent, even with key absences.
Injury Report Boston Celtics
- John Tonje (Out): Tonje was traded from the Jazz to the Celtics on Thursday in exchange for Chris Boucher, a future second-round pick and cash considerations, Zack Cox of the Boston Herald reports.
- Jayson Tatum (Out): The Celtics have not ruled Tatum (Achilles) out for the 2025-26 season, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported on the Pat McAfee Show on Thursday.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction & Best Bet
This matchup is heavily influenced by the injury reports. The Miami Heat are severely shorthanded without key offensive contributors Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier, placing an immense scoring burden on Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo. While the Celtics are without Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown’s elevated play (29.5 PPG) and the Celtics’ overall depth, especially at home, give them a significant edge. Boston’s defense, coupled with their ability to spread the scoring, will be too much for a depleted Heat squad. We project the Celtics to control the pace and secure a comfortable victory.
Prediction: Boston Celtics -6.5 (Spread)
Regarding the total points line of 230.5, despite Tatum’s absence, Brown’s scoring surge and the Heat’s desperation for offense (even with their injuries) suggest a higher-scoring affair. Both teams possess capable offensive players who can contribute, and the pace could quicken given the circumstances. We expect enough offensive output from both sides to push the total over.
Over/Under Pick: over
Last 5 Games: MIA
Form:
LWLWL
VS
vs Atlanta
L 127-115
PTS
Jaquez Jr. 21
REB
Adebayo 14
AST
Mitchell 10
VS
vs Chicago
W 134-91
PTS
Adebayo 20
REB
Adebayo 9
AST
Jakucionis 9
VS
vs Chicago
L 125-118
PTS
Larsson 22
REB
Adebayo 11
AST
Jaquez Jr. 7
VS
@ Chicago
W 116-113
PTS
Powell 21
REB
Adebayo 12
AST
Jaquez Jr. 6
VS
vs Orlando
L 133-124
PTS
Fontecchio 23
REB
Adebayo 12
AST
Adebayo 7
| Opponent | Result | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Atlanta | L 127-115 | Jaquez Jr. 21 | Adebayo 14 | Mitchell 10 |
| vs Chicago | W 134-91 | Adebayo 20 | Adebayo 9 | Jakucionis 9 |
| vs Chicago | L 125-118 | Larsson 22 | Adebayo 11 | Jaquez Jr. 7 |
| @ Chicago | W 116-113 | Powell 21 | Adebayo 12 | Jaquez Jr. 6 |
| vs Orlando | L 133-124 | Fontecchio 23 | Adebayo 12 | Adebayo 7 |
Last 5 Games: BOS
Form:
WWWWL
VS
@ Houston
W 114-93
PTS
White 28
REB
Queta 19
AST
White 8
VS
@ Dallas
W 110-100
PTS
Brown 33
REB
Brown 11
AST
White 8
VS
vs Milwaukee
W 107-79
PTS
Brown 30
REB
Brown 13
AST
White 8
VS
vs Sacramento
W 112-93
PTS
Pritchard 29
REB
Queta 15
AST
White 9
VS
vs Atlanta
L 117-106
PTS
Brown 21
REB
Brown 7
AST
Garza 6
| Opponent | Result | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Houston | W 114-93 | White 28 | Queta 19 | White 8 |
| @ Dallas | W 110-100 | Brown 33 | Brown 11 | White 8 |
| vs Milwaukee | W 107-79 | Brown 30 | Brown 13 | White 8 |
| vs Sacramento | W 112-93 | Pritchard 29 | Queta 15 | White 9 |
| vs Atlanta | L 117-106 | Brown 21 | Brown 7 | Garza 6 |
Written by Matt Dorsey
5 YEARS EXPERIENCE
Matt Dorsey turned his obsession with sports into a career five years ago, and he hasn't looked back. By combining a fan's passion with a veteran’s analytical eye, Matt provides reliable insights for the NBA, NHL, and NFL. He knows you’re looking for more than just a pick; you’re looking for a reason to trust the play. That’s why his work is always transparent, researched, and rooted in five years of proven results.
