Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Odds & Picks | 03.01.26

Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 03.01.26

The Memphis Grizzlies (22-36) travel to Gainbridge Fieldhouse this Sunday to face the Indiana Pacers (15-45) in a matchup defined by resilience and depth testing. With both franchises navigating a gauntlet of injuries to cornerstone players, this 5:00 PM ET tip-off in Indianapolis serves as a critical evaluation point for the remaining rosters as they navigate the final stretch of the regular season.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Matchup Preview

Memphis Grizzlies Key Stats & Trends

Memphis enters this contest severely shorthanded, forced to rely on their developmental pipeline. Jaylen Wells (12.3 PPG) has emerged as a primary scoring option, while Cam Spencer (5.5 APG) has taken over playmaking duties. The Grizzlies’ efficiency has largely stabilized through Ty Jerome, who has been spectacular with a rating of 19.6 PPG, 5.6 APG, and 1.2 SPG. However, with GG Jackson (3.9 RPG) leading a depleted rebounding unit, Memphis faces a significant challenge in controlling the paint against Indiana’s size.

Injury Report Memphis Grizzlies

• Taj Gibson (Out): Gibson (reconditioning) won’t play in Sunday’s game against the Pacers.
• Ty Jerome (Day-to-day): Jerome (thigh) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Pacers.
• Santi Aldama (Out): Aldama (knee) is doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Pacers.
• Cedric Coward (Out): Coward (knee) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Pacers.
• Brandon Clarke (Out): Clarke (calf) is out for Friday’s game against Dallas.
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out): The Grizzlies announced Thursday that Caldwell-Pope underwent surgery to address the misalignment of his right pinky finger and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign.
• Ja Morant (Out): Morant is continuing to experience discomfort during his recovery from a UCL sprain in his left elbow, and he’ll be reevaluated in two weeks.
• Zach Edey (Out): Edey continues to recover from a stress reaction in his left ankle and will be re-evaluated in six weeks.

Indiana Pacers Key Stats & Trends

The Pacers continue to run their offense through Pascal Siakam, who remains a dual-threat force averaging 23.9 PPG and 6.8 RPG. In the absence of Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard (7.4 APG) has stepped up as the primary floor general, ensuring Indiana maintains a top-tier pace. While their defensive rating has suffered without Zubac and Nesmith, the Pacers’ ability to generate points in transition remains their greatest strength, especially against a Memphis defense missing its primary rim protectors.

Injury Report Indiana Pacers

• Aaron Nesmith (Out): Nesmith (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against Memphis.
• Obi Toppin (Day-to-day): Toppin (foot) is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Grizzlies.
• Ivica Zubac (Out): Zubac (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Grizzlies.
• Pascal Siakam (Day-to-day): Siakam (wrist) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game against Memphis.
• Andrew Nembhard (Day-to-day): Nembhard (back) has been upgraded to questionable for Sunday’s game against the Grizzlies.
• Johnny Furphy (Out): Furphy was diagnosed with a torn right ACL and will miss the remainder of the season.
• Tyrese Haliburton (Out): Haliburton continues to recover from right Achilles surgery.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Prediction & Best Bet

Despite the extensive injury lists for both squads, the Indiana Pacers are the clear choice to secure the home victory. Indiana’s offensive system is better equipped to handle absences, particularly with Nembhard’s ability to push the tempo. Memphis is currently missing its entire starting frontcourt and its primary superstar, leaving them with limited options to stop Pascal Siakam if he clears the doubtful tag, or Obi Toppin in transition.

Regarding the total, we are projecting this game to go over the 238.5 line. Both teams are missing their best interior defenders (Edey and Zubac), which should lead to high-percentage looks at the rim. Expect a fast-paced, high-possession affair where defensive rotations are slow, allowing both units to exceed their season scoring averages.