Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets Prediction | 01.26.26

Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 26-01-2026

The regular-season grind brings us an intriguing Western Conference matchup as the Memphis Grizzlies (18-25) travel to the Toyota Center in Houston to face the formidable Houston Rockets (27-16) on January 26, 2026, at 8:00 PM. This contest pits a resilient Grizzlies squad, battling through a challenging season, against a Rockets team that has established itself as a playoff contender.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets Matchup Preview

Memphis Grizzlies Key Stats & Trends

The Memphis Grizzlies enter this game in a tough spot, significantly hampered by injuries. Despite their struggles, they continue to rely on the defensive prowess and scoring ability of Jaren Jackson Jr., who leads the team with 18.9 points per game and contributes across the board with 5.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.5 blocks. Rebounding duties are primarily handled by Jock Landale, averaging 6.5 boards, while Cam Spencer orchestrates the offense with 5.5 assists. The Grizzlies’ identity often revolves around defensive intensity, but their offensive output has been inconsistent, especially with key playmakers sidelined.

Injury Report Memphis Grizzlies

• Santi Aldama (Out): Aldama (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game versus the Nuggets.
• Ty Jerome (Out): Grizzlies head coach Tuomas Iisalo said Friday that Jerome (calf) is likely to make his season debut within 1-to-2 weeks.
• Ja Morant (Out): Morant (elbow) will be reevaluated in approximately three weeks.
• Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out): Pippen is progressing well in his recovery from left toe surgery and is expected to return in 4-6 weeks.
• Zach Edey (Out): Edey continues to recover from a stress reaction in his left ankle and will be re-evaluated in six weeks.
• Brandon Clarke (Out): Clarke is progressing well from his Grade 2 right calf strain and is expected to return in four to six weeks.

Houston Rockets Key Stats & Trends

The Houston Rockets have enjoyed a strong campaign, largely fueled by the elite offensive talents of Kevin Durant. Durant is the team’s leading scorer, pouring in 26.3 points per game, complemented by 5.5 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.0 blocks. The versatile big man Alperen Sengun has been a revelation, dominating the glass with 9.0 rebounds and demonstrating exceptional playmaking for a center, leading the team with 6.4 assists. The Rockets’ offense thrives on Durant’s scoring and Sengun’s all-around contributions, making them a formidable force at home.

Injury Report Houston Rockets

• Aaron Holiday (Out): Holiday (back) is probable for Monday’s game against the Grizzlies.
• Steven Adams (Out): Head coach Ime Udoka said Tuesday that Adams suffered a a “severely sprained, Grade 3 ankle sprain” and will be out indefinitely.
• Fred VanVleet (Out): VanVleet suffered a torn ACL and may be out for the entire 2025-26 campaign.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets Prediction & Best Bet

This matchup presents a clear disparity, particularly given the extensive injury list for the Memphis Grizzlies. Without Ja Morant, Santi Aldama, and several other key contributors, their offensive firepower is severely limited, relying almost solely on Jaren Jackson Jr. The Rockets, despite missing Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, still boast the superstar presence of Kevin Durant and the dynamic playmaking of Alperen Sengun, giving them a significant edge.

While Houston’s offense will be potent, Memphis’s defensive identity, even shorthanded, often keeps games from becoming complete blowouts. The Grizzlies’ current roster will struggle to consistently score, and without VanVleet, Houston’s pace might also be slightly tempered. Expect a defensively focused effort from Memphis to try and contain Durant, leading to a lower-scoring affair.

Our prediction is for the Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 (Spread) to cover, as their grit, despite the injuries, could keep them within striking distance against a Rockets team that might not fully exploit a massive advantage. For the total points, we lean towards the under (223.5), anticipating a game where both teams face offensive challenges due to key absences.