Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Odds & Picks

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 02.07.26

The Western Conference delivers an intriguing regular-season matchup as the Houston Rockets (31-19) travel to face the Oklahoma City Thunder (40-12) on February 7th, 2026, at 3:30 PM in the Paycom Center. This game pits a rising Rockets squad against a Thunder team that has established itself as a top-tier contender, albeit one currently grappling with significant personnel challenges.

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Matchup Preview

Houston Rockets Key Stats & Trends

The Houston Rockets have shown impressive growth this season, largely fueled by the consistent brilliance of Kevin Durant. Durant remains an elite scorer, averaging 26.0 points per game, and his overall rating of 26.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.4 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.9 BPG underscores his two-way impact. Alperen Sengun has emerged as a dynamic hub from the center position, leading the team with 9.4 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game, showcasing his versatile playmaking. However, the Rockets’ depth will be tested, particularly in the backcourt and frontcourt rotations.

Injury Report Houston Rockets

Jae’Sean Tate (Out): Tate (wrist) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Thunder.
Steven Adams (Out): The Rockets announced Wednesday that Adams has undergone season-ending left ankle surgery, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Fred VanVleet (Out): VanVleet suffered a torn ACL and may be out for the entire 2025-26 campaign, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Oklahoma City Thunder Key Stats & Trends

The Oklahoma City Thunder boast one of the league’s best records, built on a foundation of defensive intensity and emergent young talent. Chet Holmgren has been a revelation, anchoring their defense and contributing significantly on offense with 17.7 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. His comprehensive rating of 17.7 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.5 SPG, 2.0 BPG highlights his two-way prowess. Jaylin Williams leads the team in assists with a modest 2.5 APG, indicating a more balanced offensive distribution when healthy. However, the Thunder face an uphill battle given their extensive injury list, particularly to their primary offensive creators.

Injury Report Oklahoma City Thunder

Jalen Williams (Out): Williams (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Rockets.
Ajay Mitchell (Out): Mitchell (abdomen) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Rockets.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Out): Gilgeous-Alexander is dealing with an abdominal injury and he’ll be re-evaluated after the All-Star break, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Nikola Topic (Out): Topic has been diagnosed with testicular cancer, Thunder general manager Sam Presti announced Thursday, Justin Martinez of The Oklahoman reports.
Thomas Sorber (Out): The Thunder announced Friday that Sorber has sustained a torn ACL in his right knee during an offseason workout, NBA reporter Marc Stein reports.

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction & Best Bet

This matchup presents a fascinating dynamic given the significant injuries plaguing both rosters. While Houston is without VanVleet and Adams, the Thunder are missing two of their primary offensive engines in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. However, OKC’s league-leading record (40-12) isn’t solely reliant on star power; their defensive identity and depth will be crucial. At home, the Thunder’s collective effort and Chet Holmgren’s elevated two-way play (2.0 BPG) should provide enough to overcome a Rockets team that will lean heavily on Kevin Durant’s 26.0 PPG. Expect Holmgren to take on an even larger offensive role and their role players to step up in a hostile home environment.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 (Spread)

Despite the key absences, the total points line of 211.5 seems low. While the Thunder’s scoring will be impacted, Holmgren is capable of increased offensive output, and other players will get more opportunities. The Rockets, with Durant and Sengun (6.2 APG), can generate offense. The pace of play could be higher than expected as both teams look to push in transition, and defensive lapses might occur due to modified rotations. We anticipate enough offensive production to push past this total.

Total Points: over 211.5

Last 5 Games: HOU

Form:

LLWWW

VS vs Charlotte

L 109-99

PTS Durant 31

REB Sengun 9

AST Thompson 7

VS vs Boston

L 114-93

PTS Durant 15

REB Sengun 9

AST Thompson 4

VS @ Indiana

W 118-114

PTS Sengun 39

REB Sengun 16

AST Thompson 7

VS vs Dallas

W 111-107

PTS Thompson 21

REB Sengun 14

AST Thompson 9

VS @ Atlanta

W 104-86

PTS Durant 31

REB Sengun 13

AST Thompson 5

Opponent	Result	Points	Rebounds	Assists
vs Charlotte	L 109-99	Durant 31	Sengun 9	Thompson 7
vs Boston	L 114-93	Durant 15	Sengun 9	Thompson 4
@ Indiana	W 118-114	Sengun 39	Sengun 16	Thompson 7
vs Dallas	W 111-107	Thompson 21	Sengun 14	Thompson 9
@ Atlanta	W 104-86	Durant 31	Sengun 13	Thompson 5

Last 5 Games: OKC

Form:

LWWLW

VS @ San Antonio

L 116-106

PTS Williams 25

REB Williams 12

AST Wiggins 6

VS vs Orlando

W 128-92

PTS Joe 22

REB Holmgren 10

AST Hartenstein 10

VS @ Denver

W 121-111

PTS Gilgeous-Alexander 34

REB Wallace 6

AST Gilgeous-Alexander 13

VS @ Minnesota

L 123-111

PTS Gilgeous-Alexander 30

REB Gilgeous-Alexander 6

AST Gilgeous-Alexander 8

VS vs New Orleans

W 104-95

PTS Gilgeous-Alexander 29

REB Holmgren 14

AST Williams 5

Opponent	Result	Points	Rebounds	Assists
@ San Antonio	L 116-106	Williams 25	Williams 12	Wiggins 6
vs Orlando	W 128-92	Joe 22	Holmgren 10	Hartenstein 10
@ Denver	W 121-111	Gilgeous-Alexander 34	Wallace 6	Gilgeous-Alexander 13
@ Minnesota	L 123-111	Gilgeous-Alexander 30	Gilgeous-Alexander 6	Gilgeous-Alexander 8
vs New Orleans	W 104-95	Gilgeous-Alexander 29	Holmgren 14	Williams 5

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Odds & Picks | 02.07.26

Houston Rockets

Oklahoma City Thunder

Game Spread

Total Points

Tale of the Tape

Key Matchup: Top Scorers

K. Durant

C. Holmgren

Detailed Analysis