Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds & Picks | 02.28.26
Houston Rockets
Miami Heat
Game Spread
Total Points
Tale of the Tape
Key Matchup: Top Scorers
K. Durant
B. Adebayo
Detailed Analysis
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 02.28.26
The Houston Rockets (37-21) travel to the Kaseya Center this Saturday, February 28th, to face a resilient Miami Heat (31-29) squad at 3:30 PM. This late-season cross-conference clash features two teams battling for playoff positioning, with Houston looking to maintain its elite status in the West while Miami attempts to stay afloat in a crowded Eastern Conference race.
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Matchup Preview
Houston Rockets Key Stats & Trends
The Rockets have transformed into a legitimate powerhouse behind the elite scoring of Kevin Durant, who continues to defy age with 26.1 PPG. While the loss of their primary floor general is significant, Alperen Sengun has stepped up as a point-center, leading the team in both rebounds (9.2) and assists (6.4). Houston’s offense remains potent, but their defensive rotations will be tested without their veteran rim protectors.
- Points: Kevin Durant (26.1)
- Rebounds: Alperen Sengun (9.2)
- Assists: Alperen Sengun (6.4)
- Rating: Kevin Durant (26.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.5 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.9 BPG)
Injury Report Houston Rockets
- Jabari Smith Jr. (Out): Smith is out for Saturday’s game against the Heat with a right ankle sprain.
- Jae’Sean Tate (Out): Tate has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 MCL sprain in his right knee and will be re-evaluated in two weeks.
- Steven Adams (Out): The Rockets announced Adams has undergone season-ending left ankle surgery.
- Fred VanVleet (Out): VanVleet suffered a torn ACL and may be out for the entire 2025-26 campaign.
Miami Heat Key Stats & Trends
Miami continues to rely on the “Heat Culture” anchor, Bam Adebayo, who leads the team with 18.5 PPG and 9.8 RPG. With major absences in the backcourt, Davion Mitchell has flourished in a larger role, averaging 7.0 APG. However, the Heat’s depth is being pushed to the limit, forcing younger role players into high-leverage minutes against Houston’s star-heavy frontline.
- Points: Bam Adebayo (18.5)
- Rebounds: Bam Adebayo (9.8)
- Assists: Davion Mitchell (7.0)
- Rating: Bam Adebayo (18.5 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.7 BPG)
Injury Report Miami Heat
- Nikola Jovic (Out): Jovic (back) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Rockets.
- Norman Powell (Out): Powell is week-to-week with a right groin strain.
- Terry Rozier (Out): The NBA placed Rozier on immediate leave from the Heat on Thursday.
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Prediction & Best Bet
Despite a depleted backcourt, the Rockets hold the definitive talent advantage with Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun. Miami’s defense, while disciplined, lacks the perimeter depth to contain Houston’s isolation scoring without Powell and Jovic. Expect Sengun to exploit the Heat’s lack of size outside of Adebayo. We are backing Houston Rockets -3.5 (Spread). Additionally, with both teams missing key defensive stoppers like Adams and Smith Jr., the pace should favor the over on the 225.5 total points line.
Last 5 Games: HOU
| Opponent | Result | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Orlando | W 113-108 | Durant 40 | Durant 8 | Sengun 5 |
| vs Sacramento | W 128-97 | Sheppard 28 | Sengun 13 | Sengun 11 |
| vs Utah | W 125-105 | Smith Jr. 31 | Eason 10 | Durant 12 |
| @ New York | L 108-106 | Durant 30 | Eason 12 | Thompson 7 |
| @ Charlotte | W 105-101 | Durant 35 | Durant 8 | Sengun 7 |
Last 5 Games: MIA
| Opponent | Result | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Philadelphia | L 124-117 | Adebayo 29 | Adebayo 14 | Herro 7 |
| @ Milwaukee | L 128-117 | Powell 26 | Adebayo 9 | Mitchell 8 |
| vs Memphis | W 136-120 | Wiggins 28 | Ware 15 | Powell 6 |
| @ Atlanta | W 128-97 | Herro 24 | Ware 12 | Mitchell 7 |
| @ New Orleans | W 123-111 | Adebayo 27 | Adebayo 14 | Mitchell 5 |
Written by Matt Dorsey
Matt Dorsey turned his obsession with sports into a career five years ago, and he hasn't looked back. By combining a fan's passion with a veteran’s analytical eye, Matt provides reliable insights for the NBA, NHL, and NFL. He knows you’re looking for more than just a pick; you’re looking for a reason to trust the play. That’s why his work is always transparent, researched, and rooted in five years of proven results.
