Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction | 01.22.26

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 22-01-2026

The regular season heats up as the Golden State Warriors (25-20) travel to the American Airlines Center in Dallas to face the struggling Dallas Mavericks (18-26) on January 22, 2026, at 7:30 PM. This matchup pits a playoff-contending Warriors squad against a Mavericks team severely depleted by injuries, promising an intriguing contest despite the disparity in records.

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Matchup Preview

Golden State Warriors Key Stats & Trends

The Golden State Warriors enter this game with a solid, albeit not dominant, 25-20 record, demonstrating their continued pursuit of a strong playoff seed. Their offense largely revolves around the unparalleled shooting of Stephen Curry, who averages an elite 27.1 points per game and boasts a comprehensive rating of 27.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.4 BPG. Veteran forward Draymond Green remains the team’s heartbeat, leading in playmaking and rebounding with 5.8 rebounds per game and 5.2 assists per game. While their offensive firepower is clear, the Warriors have shown occasional defensive lapses and inconsistency, particularly on the road.

Injury Report Golden State Warriors

• Gary Payton II (Day-to-day): Payton is questionable for Thursday’s game against the Mavericks with right foot soreness.
• Jimmy Butler III (Out): Butler’s injury from Monday Night’s game involves a torn right ACL and he will be out for the rest of the season, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
• Seth Curry (Out): The Warriors announced Sunday that Curry is making progress in his recovery from a sciatic nerve issue and will be re-evaluated in two weeks.

Dallas Mavericks Key Stats & Trends

The Dallas Mavericks have endured a challenging season, reflected in their 18-26 record, exacerbated by a string of significant injuries. Rookie sensation Cooper Flagg has emerged as a bright spot, leading the team with 18.8 points per game and showcasing an impressive all-around game with a rating of 18.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.8 BPG. P.J. Washington anchors the glass with 7.4 rebounds per game, while Ryan Nembhard is stepping up in the playmaking role, dishing out 5.2 assists per game. Despite individual efforts, the Mavericks struggle for consistent offensive rhythm and defensive cohesion given their current roster constraints.

Injury Report Dallas Mavericks

• Moussa Cisse (Day-to-day): Cisse is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game against Golden State.
• Daniel Gafford (Out): Gafford (ankle) is questionable for Thursday’s versus the Warriors.
• Anthony Davis (Out): A second opinion revealed Davis (finger) won’t require surgery, and he’ll be re-evaluated in six weeks, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
• Dereck Lively II (Out): Lively successfully underwent surgery on his right foot Sunday.
• Kyrie Irving (Out): Irving (knee) remains out indefinitely and doesn’t have a return timetable, Mavericks reporter Grant Afseth said during an appearance on HoopsHype’s podcast ‘Around the Beat’ on Friday.
• Dante Exum (Out): The Mavericks announced Thursday that Exum will undergo season-ending knee surgery.

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction & Best Bet

Despite the Mavericks’ extensive injury list, the spread of Dallas Mavericks +5.5 (Spread) offers value. The Warriors, while formidable, are also dealing with key absences in Butler and Seth Curry, which impacts their depth and secondary scoring. At home, even a depleted Mavericks squad, driven by the emergence of Cooper Flagg and the desperation of their situation, could keep this game closer than anticipated. Golden State’s road performances aren’t always dominant, making a comfortable cover for the Mavs plausible.

Regarding the total points line of 234.5, we lean towards the over. The Mavericks’ interior defense is severely compromised with Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, and Daniel Gafford all out. This should allow Stephen Curry and the Warriors’ offense to operate with greater ease, leading to a high-scoring output. Conversely, with Kyrie Irving and Dante Exum sidelined, players like Flagg and Nembhard will be forced to shoulder a heavier offensive load, potentially leading to more shot attempts and a faster pace. With key defensive anchors missing on both sides, an up-tempo, higher-scoring affair is expected.