Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction | 01.23.26
Denver Nuggets
Milwaukee Bucks
Game Spread
Total Points
Tale of the Tape
Detailed Analysis
Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 23-01-2026
In a compelling regular-season matchup, the Denver Nuggets (30-15) travel to Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee to face the Milwaukee Bucks (18-25) on January 23, 2026, at 9:30 PM EST. This game pits a Western Conference powerhouse against an Eastern Conference contender looking to assert dominance on their home court amidst a challenging season.
Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks Matchup Preview
Denver Nuggets Key Stats & Trends
The Denver Nuggets arrive with an impressive 30-15 record, showcasing their consistent elite performance. However, their upcoming challenge is significantly impacted by a crucial injury report. Offensively, the Nuggets have been spearheaded by Jamal Murray, who is averaging a stellar 26.0 points and 7.4 assists. His overall rating of 26.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 7.4 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 0.3 BPG highlights his all-around impact. Rebounding, however, could be an issue with Peyton Watson leading the active roster with a modest 5.1 rebounds per game, especially with key absences.
Injury Report Denver Nuggets
- Christian Braun (Out): Braun (ankle) will not play Thursday against the Wizards.
- Cameron Johnson (Out): Johnson (knee) has yet to progress to contact work and remains out indefinitely.
- Nikola Jokic (Out): Jokic (knee) has resumed on-court workouts, but will not play in this contest.
- Tamar Bates (Out): Bates (foot) will be re-evaluated in 12 weeks.
Milwaukee Bucks Key Stats & Trends
The Milwaukee Bucks, despite their 18-25 record, remain a formidable opponent, particularly at home, largely due to the singular brilliance of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis dominates the stat sheet, leading the team with 28.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. His comprehensive rating of 28.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 5.6 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.8 BPG underscores his MVP-caliber production. The Bucks will lean heavily on his two-way impact to overcome their inconsistencies.
Injury Report Milwaukee Bucks
- Myles Turner (Day-to-day): Turner (ankle) is probable for Friday’s game against the Nuggets.
- Kevin Porter Jr. (Out): Porter (oblique) won’t play “any time soon,” and is without an official timetable to return.
- Taurean Prince (Out): The Bucks anticipate Prince is “substantially more likely than not” to be unable to play through June 15.
Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction & Best Bet
The absence of Nikola Jokic is a monumental factor in this contest. The Nuggets, while formidable, lose their offensive fulcrum and defensive anchor without their MVP. While Jamal Murray will elevate his scoring, the team’s overall efficiency and rebounding will suffer significantly. The Bucks, playing at home, will capitalize on this. With Giannis Antetokounmpo in full flight and the probable return of Myles Turner bolstering their frontcourt, Milwaukee is poised to control the paint and dictate the pace. Expect Giannis to exploit the Nuggets’ depleted interior defense. Therefore, our definitive prediction is Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 (Spread). Considering the offensive firepower of Giannis and Murray’s increased usage, alongside the Nuggets’ defensive challenges without Jokic, we also lean towards the over 221.5 total points.
Last 5 Games: DEN
| Opponent | Result | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Washington | W 107-97 | Watson 35 | Valanciunas 9 | Murray 5 |
| vs Los Angeles | L 115-107 | Murray 28 | Pickett 6 | Murray 11 |
| vs Charlotte | L 110-87 | Murray 16 | Jones 6 | Pickett 7 |
| vs Washington | W 121-115 | Murray 42 | Gordon 10 | Gordon 11 |
| @ Dallas | W 118-109 | Murray 33 | Gordon 6 | Murray 5 |
Last 5 Games: MIL
| Opponent | Result | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oklahoma City | L 122-102 | Antetokounmpo 19 | Antetokounmpo 14 | Portis 9 |
| @ Atlanta | W 112-110 | Antetokounmpo 21 | Antetokounmpo 17 | Porter Jr. 7 |
| @ San Antonio | L 119-101 | Antetokounmpo 21 | Rollins 7 | Rollins 7 |
| vs Minnesota | L 139-106 | Antetokounmpo 25 | Antetokounmpo 8 | Porter Jr. 8 |
| @ Denver | L 108-104 | Antetokounmpo 31 | Porter Jr. 9 | Antetokounmpo 11 |
Written by Matt Dorsey
Matt Dorsey turned his obsession with sports into a career five years ago, and he hasn't looked back. By combining a fan's passion with a veteran’s analytical eye, Matt provides reliable insights for the NBA, NHL, and NFL. He knows you’re looking for more than just a pick; you’re looking for a reason to trust the play. That’s why his work is always transparent, researched, and rooted in five years of proven results.