Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Odds & Picks | 02.04.26
Boston Celtics
Houston Rockets
Game Winner
Total Points
Tale of the Tape
Key Matchup: Top Scorers
J. Brown
K. Durant
Detailed Analysis
Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Odds & NBA Picks | 02.04.26
Get ready for a compelling regular-season showdown as the Boston Celtics (32-18) travel to face the Houston Rockets (31-17) on February 4th, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET at the Toyota Center in Houston. This matchup features two teams vying for strong playoff positioning, promising an intense battle on the hardwood.
Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets Matchup Preview
Boston Celtics Key Stats & Trends
The Boston Celtics enter this contest with a solid record, driven largely by the offensive brilliance of Jaylen Brown. Brown is leading the charge with an impressive average of 29.4 points per game, showcasing his ability to score efficiently. His all-around impact is undeniable, reflected in his rating of 29.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 0.4 BPG. Inside, Neemias Queta has been a force on the boards, pulling down 8.1 rebounds per game, providing crucial second-chance opportunities and defensive presence. Derrick White orchestrates the offense effectively, dishing out 5.4 assists per game. However, the team’s depth will be tested given recent roster changes and injury concerns.
Injury Report Boston Celtics
- Nikola Vucevic (Day-to-day): The Bulls traded Vucevic to the Celtics in exchange for Anfernee Simons on Tuesday, Shams Charania of ESPN reports. His integration will be key.
- Chris Boucher (Day-to-day): Boucher (personal) is out for Tuesday’s game against Dallas. His status for this game remains uncertain.
- Jayson Tatum (Out): The Celtics have not ruled Tatum (Achilles) out for the 2025-26 season, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported on the Pat McAfee Show on Thursday. His absence is a significant blow to Boston’s offensive firepower.
Houston Rockets Key Stats & Trends
The Houston Rockets are having a strong season, anchored by the evergreen Kevin Durant, who continues to defy age with 26.2 points per game. Durant’s comprehensive game is further highlighted by his rating of 26.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.6 APG, 0.7 SPG, and 0.9 BPG. Complementing Durant’s scoring, Alperen Sengun has emerged as a dominant force, leading the team in both rebounding with 9.4 boards per game and playmaking with 6.3 assists per game. The Rockets play an exciting brand of basketball, but they too face significant injury challenges that will test their resolve.
Injury Report Houston Rockets
- Dorian Finney-Smith (Out): Finney-Smith is out for Wednesday’s game against the Celtics due to left ankle injury management. This impacts their wing defense.
- Kevin Durant (Day-to-day): Durant (ankle) is probable for Wednesday’s game against the Celtics. His presence is critical for Houston.
- Steven Adams (Out): The Rockets announced Wednesday that Adams has undergone season-ending left ankle surgery, per Shams Charania of ESPN. A major loss for their interior defense and rebounding.
- Fred VanVleet (Out): VanVleet suffered a torn ACL and may be out for the entire 2025-26 campaign, Shams Charania of ESPN reports. His veteran leadership and scoring will be sorely missed.
Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets Prediction & Best Bet
This matchup presents a clash of resilient teams, both grappling with key injuries. While the Celtics benefit from the acquisition of Vucevic, the sustained absence of Jayson Tatum is a monumental void that Jaylen Brown, despite his heroics, cannot entirely fill alone. On the other hand, the Rockets, despite losing Adams and VanVleet for the season, are expected to have Kevin Durant on the court. His scoring prowess, combined with Alperen Sengun’s versatile playmaking and rebounding, gives Houston a significant edge, especially at home. The Celtics’ defense will struggle to contain Durant without Tatum’s two-way presence. Therefore, our prediction leans towards the home team.
Predicted Winner: Houston Rockets
Regarding the total points line set at 216.5, both teams possess enough offensive talent to push the score higher. With Durant probable for Houston and Brown carrying a heavy offensive load for Boston, combined with Sengun’s inside presence, scoring opportunities will be abundant. Defensive lapses are also more likely given the injury situations. We anticipate a higher-scoring affair.
Over/Under Pick: Over 216.5
Last 5 Games: BOS
| Opponent | Result | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Dallas | W 110-100 | Brown 33 | Brown 11 | White 8 |
| vs Milwaukee | W 107-79 | Brown 30 | Brown 13 | White 8 |
| vs Sacramento | W 112-93 | Pritchard 29 | Queta 15 | White 9 |
| vs Atlanta | L 117-106 | Brown 21 | Brown 7 | Garza 6 |
| vs Portland | W 102-94 | Pritchard 23 | Brown 8 | Queta 6 |
Last 5 Games: HOU
| Opponent | Result | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Indiana | W 118-114 | Sengun 39 | Sengun 16 | Thompson 7 |
| vs Dallas | W 111-107 | Thompson 21 | Sengun 14 | Thompson 9 |
| @ Atlanta | W 104-86 | Durant 31 | Sengun 13 | Thompson 5 |
| vs San Antonio | L 111-99 | Thompson 25 | Sengun 10 | Sengun 7 |
| vs Memphis | W 108-99 | Sengun 33 | Sengun 9 | Thompson 14 |
Written by Matt Dorsey
Matt Dorsey turned his obsession with sports into a career five years ago, and he hasn't looked back. By combining a fan's passion with a veteran’s analytical eye, Matt provides reliable insights for the NBA, NHL, and NFL. He knows you’re looking for more than just a pick; you’re looking for a reason to trust the play. That’s why his work is always transparent, researched, and rooted in five years of proven results.
