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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB Predictions – 23.05.26

Last Updated: May 23, 2026 8:30 AM
Saturday, 23 May 2026 PIT -157
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates

26-25
P. Skenes
VS 3:07 PM
Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays

24-27
P. Corbin

Match Winner

Pittsburgh Pirates

Total Runs

Under 7.5

Tale of the Tape

Pittsburgh Pirates PIT
Stat Comparison
TOR Toronto Blue Jays
4.9 R/G 4.08
8.78 H/G 8.1
.252 BA .241
3.86 ERA 3.88

Key Matchup: Starting Pitchers

VS
P. Skenes

P. Skenes

2.62 ERA
6-3
P. Corbin

P. Corbin

4.23 ERA
1-1

Detailed Analysis

Who will win today? Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates will win this game because P. Skenes is throwing absolute gas right now and the Toronto Blue Jays lineup lacks the discipline to handle his high-leverage heat. Expect the kid to dominate the zone early and keep the Toronto bats quiet in the Rogers Centre dirt.

The Starter Showdown: P. Skenes vs P. Corbin

Watching P. Skenes and his 2.62 ERA is like watching a young ace who knows he’s the baddest man on the mound. He hasn’t shown signs of fading, and his ability to tunnel that triple-digit heater with a devastating slider makes him nearly lights out when he gets ahead in the count.

On the flip side, P. Corbin carries a 4.23 ERA and has been prone to shelling when his command wavers. If he can’t locate that slider, the Pittsburgh Pirates will feast on his mistakes, especially since he’s been struggling to find his rhythm against aggressive hitters lately.

Offensive Trends & Lineup Depth

The Toronto Blue Jays (24-27) managed to scrap together six runs yesterday, but their bats have been cold for long stretches this season. They rely too much on the long ball and often fail to execute the small ball needed to manufacture runs against elite arms.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (26-25) are grinding through a tough road stretch, but they show plenty of grit in the dugout. They need to avoid the swing-and-miss and force P. Corbin to work deep into counts to get into that Toronto bullpen early.

Looking for more action? See our More MLB Picks.

Our Final Verdict

This game is a total mismatch on the bump where P. Skenes has the clear edge in pure stuff and confidence. While the Toronto Blue Jays won the previous meeting, they won’t find the same success against a pitcher who refuses to blink under pressure.

Pick to Win: Pittsburgh Pirates

Total Runs (Over/Under): under (Line: 7.5)

Last 5 Games: PIT

Form:
LWWLL
VS @TOR
L 2-6
VS @STL
W 6-2
VS @STL
W 7-0
VS @STL
L 6-9
VS vs PHI
L 0-6

Last 5 Games: TOR

Form:
WWWLL
VS vs PIT
W 6-2
VS @NYY
W 2-0
VS @NYY
W 2-1
VS @NYY
L 4-5
VS @NYY
L 6-7

Written by Matt Dorsey

5 YEARS EXPERIENCE

Matt Dorsey turned his obsession with sports into a career five years ago, and he hasn't looked back. By combining a fan's passion with a veteran’s analytical eye, Matt provides reliable insights for the NBA, NHL, and NFL. He knows you’re looking for more than just a pick; you’re looking for a reason to trust the play. That’s why his work is always transparent, researched, and rooted in five years of proven results.

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