Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Predictions – 17.05.26

Last Updated: May 17, 2026 12:39 AM
Sunday, 17 May 2026 PIT -131
Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies

24-23
Z. Wheeler
VS 1:35 PM
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates

24-23
P. Skenes

Match Winner

Pittsburgh Pirates

Total Runs

Over 7

Tale of the Tape

Philadelphia Phillies PHI
Stat Comparison
PIT Pittsburgh Pirates
0.13 R/G 0
0.17 H/G 0.11
.229 BA .161
0.00 ERA 6.00

Key Matchup: Starting Pitchers

VS
Z. Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

1.99 ERA
3-0
P. Skenes

P. Skenes

2.62 ERA
6-3

Detailed Analysis

Who will win today? Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates will secure the win because P. Skenes is throwing absolute gas right now and the Philadelphia Phillies are due for a hangover after their shutout victory. Expect the rookie to dominate the zone while the Pittsburgh Pirates bats wake up to take this rubber match at PNC Park.

The Starter Showdown: Z. Wheeler vs P. Skenes

Z. Wheeler (2.55 ERA) is a certified horse who knows how to navigate a lineup, but even a veteran can get tagged when a team is hungry to bounce back. He has been lights out lately, yet the Pittsburgh Pirates have a knack for grinding out long at-bats to drive up a pitch count.

On the other bump, P. Skenes (1.98 ERA) is making big-league hitters look like they are swinging underwater with that triple-digit heater. The kid is not just a flamethrower; his command of the secondary stuff ensures he won’t be shelling out free passes to a dangerous Philadelphia Phillies core.

Offensive Trends & Lineup Depth

The Philadelphia Phillies (23-23) showed plenty of pop yesterday, but this lineup is notorious for fading after a high-scoring outburst. They often struggle to adjust when facing a power arm they haven’t seen multiple times in a season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (24-22) were quiet in their last outing, but they play a gritty brand of small ball that keeps them in every game. They are on a warpath to stay above .500 and will use their speed to create chaos on the basepaths against Z. Wheeler.

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Our Final Verdict

While Z. Wheeler is a tough customer, the psychological momentum sits squarely in the Pittsburgh Pirates dugout with their ace-in-the-making on the mound. The Philadelphia Phillies will find it hard to manufacture runs against 102 mph heat in high-leverage situations.

Pick to Win: Pittsburgh Pirates

Total Runs (Over/Under): over (Line: 7)

Last 5 Games: PHI

Form:
WWWLW
VS @PIT
W 6-0
VS @PIT
W 11-9
VS @BOS
W 3-1
VS @BOS
L 1-3
VS @BOS
W 2-1

Last 5 Games: PIT

Form:
LLWLW
VS vs PHI
L 0-6
VS vs PHI
L 9-11
VS vs COL
W 7-2
VS vs COL
L 4-10
VS vs COL
W 3-1

Written by Matt Dorsey

5 YEARS EXPERIENCE

Matt Dorsey turned his obsession with sports into a career five years ago, and he hasn't looked back. By combining a fan's passion with a veteran’s analytical eye, Matt provides reliable insights for the NBA, NHL, and NFL. He knows you’re looking for more than just a pick; you’re looking for a reason to trust the play. That’s why his work is always transparent, researched, and rooted in five years of proven results.

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