Prediction Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks 05.28.25

Get ready for a clash in the desert as the Pittsburgh Pirates (19-36) take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (27-27) at Chase Field in Phoenix on May 28th, 2025, at 3:40 PM. This matchup pits two teams heading in opposite directions; the D-backs are fighting for a playoff spot, while the Pirates are battling to avoid a historically bad season.

Let’s be honest, the Buccos are struggling. Their .223 batting average ranks 27th in the league – that’s bottom-feeding territory. They’re only averaging 2.98 runs per game, which is simply not enough to win consistently. Their pitching, while not disastrous with a 4.03 ERA, is still getting tagged for 7.36 hits per game. They need a serious offensive spark to turn things around.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, present a much more potent offensive threat. Their .256 batting average is a respectable 7th in the league, and they’re putting up a solid 5.04 runs per game. Their pitching, however, is a bit of a question mark, boasting a 4.59 ERA. Their bullpen, though, has been a bright spot, racking up 17 saves. They’re averaging 8.7 hits per game, showing a consistent ability to get on base.

This is where things get interesting. We’ve got a potential pitchers’ duel, but one with a clear favorite. While both P. Skenes (3-5, ERA 2.36) for the Pirates and Z. Gallen (3-6, ERA 5.25) for the Diamondbacks are having uneven seasons, Skenes’ significantly lower ERA points to a clear advantage. Gallen’s high ERA suggests vulnerability, especially against a team that struggles to score as much as the Pirates do. Skenes’ control and ability to limit walks will be key.

Despite the home-field advantage, I’m picking the away team, the Pittsburgh Pirates, to pull off an upset. While it sounds crazy given their record, the pitching matchup heavily favors the Pirates. Considering the predicted low-scoring affair, I’m also going under the 7.5 total runs line.