Prediction Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres 05.28.25

Get ready for some NL West action as the Miami Marlins (21-31) head to Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (30-22) on May 28th, 2025, at 4:10 PM. This matchup pits two teams with contrasting fortunes this season, with the Padres comfortably above .500 and the Marlins struggling to stay afloat.

The Marlins are in a bit of a rut. Their .249 batting average ranks 12th in the league, and they’re only mustering 4.1 runs per game – that’s not going to cut it against most lineups. Their pitching staff, with a bloated 5.21 ERA, is a major cause for concern. They’re giving up 8.52 hits per game, suggesting a lack of consistency and control on the mound.

The Padres, on the other hand, are a much more balanced team. While their batting average (.251) isn’t drastically different from Miami’s, their pitching staff is significantly better, boasting a respectable 3.49 ERA. Their bullpen has been a strength, racking up 18 saves. They’re averaging 4.17 runs per game and giving up 8.37 hits per game, indicating a more solid all-around performance.

This pitching matchup is intriguing but ultimately favors the Padres. Sandy Alcantara (2-7, ERA 8.04) is having a nightmare season for Miami. His ERA speaks volumes. Facing him is Padres’ Blake Snell (2-2, ERA 6.00), who himself has had an inconsistent start, but his ERA is considerably better than Alcantara’s. The edge clearly goes to San Diego here.

The Padres are the predicted winners at home. Given the Marlins’ offensive struggles and Alcantara’s disastrous form, combined with the Padres’ superior pitching and slightly better hitting, I’m predicting a relatively low-scoring affair, but still leaning towards the over on the 8.5 run total. The Padres’ pitching will likely keep the Marlins in check, but San Diego should be able to scratch out enough runs for the win.